The Green Bay Packers‘ 2021 season largely hinges on whether or not Aaron Rodgers plays for the team. The betting market seems to agree with that statement.
According to PointsBet Sportsbook, Green Bay’s over-under win total is set at nine. This comes after PointsBet removed the Packers’ win bet from the board in April in the wake of news that Rodgers is unhappy and doesn’t want to play for the franchise anymore.
The Packers have won 13 games in each of the last two seasons. Green Bay has only won less than nine games with Rodgers starting all 16 contests on two occasions–in 2008, his first year as a starter, and in 2018, when the team was embroiled in turmoil in the final year under Mike McCarthy.
“It’s a fairly simply analysis. If Aaron Rodgers plays, it’s nearly impossible to imagine the Packers being worse that 10-7. If he doesn’t, it will be a major accomplishment for them to get past 8-9,” writes Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio.
“So it comes down to whether you think (or know) that Rodgers will play. If yes, take the over. If not, the under makes sense.”
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) July 5, 2021
Right now, the Packers are a couple of weeks away from reporting for training camp. Rodgers has stayed away thus far this offseason, but if and when he avoids camp, the situation will become more pressing.
At that point, Green Bay could finally start to come around to the idea that they might have no choice but to trade Rodgers–or Rodgers will have to face reality that if the Packers call his bluff and dare him to honor his contract, he might not be playing football anywhere in September.