Workers are working at a swimwear factory in Jinjiang, Fujian Province, southeastern China, on Tuesday, September 28, 2021.
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Beijing — Prior to China’s quarterly growth scheduled for Monday, most major investment banks have adjusted their economic forecasts for the year, warning that sudden power outages and a downturn in the real estate market could slow growth. ..
CNBC has tracked China’s full-year GDP estimates from 13 major banks, 10 of which have reduced forecasts since August. The median forecast is 8.2% growth this year, following the latest cuts. This is 0.3 percentage points down from previous median forecasts.
Among the companies tracked by CNBC, Japanese investment bank Nomura has the lowest full-year forecast for China at 7.7%. DBS, the largest bank in Southeast Asia, has the highest rate at 8.8%.
Here are the bank’s forecasts for the full year:
Banks that cut China’s GDP forecast
- ANZ: Reduced from 8.8% to 8.3%
- Morgan Stanley: Reduced from 8.2% to 7.9%
- Bank of America: Reduced from 8.3% to 8%
- City: Reduced from 8.7% to 8.2%
- Deutsche Bank: Reduced from 8.9% to 8.4%
- Goldman Sachs: Reduced from 8.2% to 7.8%
- HSBC: Reduced from 8.5% to 8.3%
- Nomura: Reduced from 8.2% to 7.7%
- Standard Chartered: Reduced from 8.8% to 8.2%
- JP Morgan: Reduced from 8.7% to 8.3%
Banks that did not change China’s forecast
- Credit Suisse: 8.2%.
- DBS: 8.8%.
- UBS: 8.2%.
China’s economic situation
This year, negative growth factors are rising, from slower-than-expected consumer spending to devastating floods. Adding to the uncertainty is Beijing’s widespread regulatory crackdown, including the monopoly action of the real estate developers and internet technology giants who are indebted.
Strong export growth remains bright. China’s economic expansion is progressing at a pace that exceeds the IMF’s global growth forecast of 5.9%.
Analysts said China is taking advantage of the painful but necessary adjustments to the economy this year. This year’s official GDP target of over 6% is much lower than the investment bank’s bet target.
— CNBC’s Gabrielle See contributed to this report.
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